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Stanford Engineers Develop World's First Practical Titanium-Sapphire Laser on a Chip in Nature Paper
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Prediction markets for Nature

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.23%chance

201160211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4881

4599

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

196083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12421

7908

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.74%chance

518653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

906

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

945

Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2024

Feb 22, 8:27 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8.27%chance

19740224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6786

484

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

61.35%chance

982206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1622

1383

Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?

Jun 3, 11:03 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.04%chance

4722469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4872

205

Will the scientific journal "Nature" explicitly endorse Joe Biden for president in 2024?

Mar 16, 7:31 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

43.29%chance

251098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

563

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

Nov 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

306447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

830

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Jan 11, 11:38 PMNov 12, 7:59 AM

24.9%chance

12286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

958

Will the world reach peak natural gas production by 2035?

Feb 21, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.73%chance

12558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

987

Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)

Apr 6, 1:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57%chance

11407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

978

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