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Prediction markets for Gates
OptionVotes
1078
963
Will the Gates Foundation give more than $100mn to AI Safety work before 2025?
Jun 4, 8:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.66%chance
15395
OptionVotes
1123
929
OptionVotes
1080
962
Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?
Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
30.66%chance
201503
OptionVotes
1178
828
Will Bill Gates make an AI Safety-related donation before January 1, 2025?
Jan 31, 10:24 PMJan 11, 4:59 AM
15%chance
15612
OptionVotes
1155
947
Will "The Pearly Gates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 12, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
19.34%chance
159
OptionVotes
1056
717
Will Baldur's Gate 3 be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
Jan 12, 4:41 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM
7.65%chance
242689
OptionVotes
2443
607
Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?
Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM
30.13%chance
341362
OptionVotes
1365
612
OptionVotes
1667
895
Will Bill Gates (68) have another pie thrown in his face before he turns 70?
Dec 16, 6:52 PMOct 28, 10:59 PM
8.73%chance
12941
OptionVotes
1342
919
OptionVotes
1246
951
Will Bill Gates make 1 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Dec 2024?
Feb 4, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79%chance
8493
OptionVotes
334
61
