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Prediction markets for Apollo
Prediction markets for Apollo
Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)
Feb 6, 6:25 AM
Jan 2, 2:59 AM
27.05%
chance
13
361
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1011
937
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?
Jun 5, 11:00 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
24.84%
chance
11
294
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1170
901
Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?
Dec 15, 6:29 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
80%
chance
17
1245
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1144
935
Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?
Jan 18, 10:41 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
57.86%
chance
12
255
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1008
988
By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
Nov 23, 10:43 AM
Dec 31, 7:59 PM
4.27%
chance
52
14332
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3960
753
How many Apollo moonwalkers will be alive when the next moonwalker returns to Earth?
Feb 1, 2:48 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13
403
Will "Announcing Apollo Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 15, 12:42 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
4.34%
chance
3
130
Option
Votes
YES
NO
240
100
Will Apollo's $11 Billion offer to buy Paramount Global’s Hollywood film and TV studio go through?
Mar 20, 6:31 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
8.03%
chance
9
710
Option
Votes
YES
NO
749
80
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
7
108
Which Apollo astronaut will be the last to get around without needing to use a wheelchair?
Sep 11, 12:10 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
0
0
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon?
Dec 24, 5:42 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
5
245
Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?
Mar 10, 4:40 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
47.64%
chance
1
5
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
95
Articles
Latest stories
Paramount's $8B merger with Skydance collapses, $15B debt looms amid legal threats and shareholder dissatisfaction
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19
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5
29 days
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11
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5
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8
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4
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14
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15
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20
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10
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8
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7
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28
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7
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5
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10
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5
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4
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22
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11
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40
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7
3 months
Culture
Paramount ($PARA) Shares Surge, Nears Deal with Skydance, RedBird Capital
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5
3 months
Economics
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Authors
5
3 months
Culture
UBS to Sell $8 Billion of Credit Suisse Assets to Apollo Global Management
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7
3 months
Economics
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5
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12
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10
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4
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Crypto
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4
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Crypto
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5
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Economics
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10
4 months
Economics
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Apollo Warns of AI Bubble Surpassing 1990s Tech Bubble in S&P 500
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6
4 months
Economics
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Sun Life Financial, Globe Life, and Apollo Global Management Report 10% and 31% Increase in Q4 Core Profit and Quarterly Earnings
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8
5 months
Economics
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Private Equity Titans Like Apollo and Blackstone Bet Big on Insurance, Raise €2 Billion for Infrastructure
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6
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Economics
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Median Age of Homebuyers Climbs to 58 in 2023, from 29 to 35 for First-Timers
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5
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Economics
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Authors
6
6 months
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CFRA Upgrades Paramount as Apollo Eyes Bid; Sale Looms
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10
6 months
Culture
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7
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9
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4
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Authors
5
7 months
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7
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5
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7
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6
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5
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8
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4
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5
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5
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8
9 months
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