The Gauge News

Streaming Services Hit Record 38.8% of TV Usage in May 2024, Nielsen's The Gauge Reports
Authors
5
13 days
Culture

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Jan 4, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171293

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

72537

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

112642

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.2%chance

7519817

OptionVotes

YES

2819

1400

Will Kenya restructure its debt obligations with China in 2024?

Dec 1, 11:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.49%chance

311995

OptionVotes

YES

2155

1020

Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?

May 24, 11:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.37%chance

9123846

OptionVotes

YES

7479

2606

Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations?

Jun 27, 9:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.77%chance

9617

OptionVotes

YES

1036

965

Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025?

Jun 15, 10:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.22%chance

21805

OptionVotes

YES

1010

974

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030? [100M subsidy]

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

24.37%chance

183166

OptionVotes

YES

1072

947

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Jul 3, 5:50 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.08%chance

22736

OptionVotes

YES

1044

813

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

14193

OptionVotes

YES

1059

962

Conditional on if Taylor Swift endorses Joe Biden for President, will Joe Biden win the presidency?

Feb 12, 9:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.18%chance

512298

OptionVotes

YES

1368

688

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The Gauge News

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Prediction markets for The Gauge

Prediction markets for The Gauge

Prediction markets for The Gauge

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Will Kenya restructure its debt obligations with China in 2024?

Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?

Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations?

Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025?

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030? [100M subsidy]

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

Conditional on if Taylor Swift endorses Joe Biden for President, will Joe Biden win the presidency?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for The Gauge

Prediction markets for The Gauge

Prediction markets for The Gauge

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Will Kenya restructure its debt obligations with China in 2024?