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Crush News
Prediction markets for Crush
Prediction markets for Crush
SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?
Oct 18, 6:06 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
41.95%
chance
31
5481
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1104
763
How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
May 25, 7:46 PM
Jul 31, 9:59 PM
34.62%
chance
3
415
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1374
728
Coin-base crushes again this year (2024), after 28-FEB-24 (Y/N)
Mar 4, 4:18 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
49.01%
chance
1
2
Option
Votes
YES
NO
102
98
Will a girl be discovered to have a world-defining crush on Jose Luis Ricon by 2025?
Sep 11, 1:56 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
35.2%
chance
3
48
Option
Votes
YES
NO
115
72
Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?
Dec 17, 6:35 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
38.53%
chance
9
122
Option
Votes
YES
NO
280
188
Will self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science) in next 12 months?
Oct 13, 8:41 PM
Oct 2, 3:59 AM
40.03%
chance
14
954
Option
Votes
YES
NO
171
133
Will Jose Luis Ricon ever have another crush by 2030?
Sep 11, 4:43 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
59.02%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
NO
YES
80
62
Global warming will increase by at least 2.5° in 2050 and crushing the Paris Agreement.
Feb 20, 7:59 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
57.84%
chance
6
34
Option
Votes
NO
YES
161
141
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
Which will be the top 3 NEWEST media franchises to make over $10B according to Wikipedia on Jan 1st 2030?
Dec 9, 3:36 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
13
650
Which will be the top 10 NEWEST media franchises to make over $10B according to Wikipedia on Jan 1st 2030?
Feb 3, 2:33 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
9
244
What is the hardest line in fiction, according to Manifold?
Apr 10, 6:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
3794
Articles
Latest stories
Apple Apologizes for Controversial iPad Pro 'Crush' Ad as Samsung Mocks with Galaxy Tab 'UnCrush' Campaign
Authors
9
2 months
AI
Tech
Apple Apologizes, Withdraws iPad Ad After Global Backlash
Authors
5
2 months
Culture
Apple Withdraws 'Crush' Ad Following Global Backlash
Authors
6
2 months
Infosec
Tech
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