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Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

Feb 22, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.08%chance

129180291

OptionVotes

YES

141623

72962

What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

Dec 8, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35547315

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

Jun 18, 1:02 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.96%chance

359750

OptionVotes

YES

2700

871

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.88%chance

485491

OptionVotes

YES

1016

964

Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before Bitcoin reaches $100K?

Mar 20, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

15438

OptionVotes

YES

1022

932

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

1087

874

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

30%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

1027

982

Will English Wikipedia reach 7,000,000 Articles By EOY 2024?

Jan 10, 1:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.39%chance

10212

OptionVotes

YES

1063

964

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

Jan 15, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.61%chance

13355

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

30.29%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.09%chance

16553

OptionVotes

YES

1021

968

Will more New York Times articles use the word "wokeness" in 2024 than in 2023?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

17805

OptionVotes

YES

1189

822

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Article News

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before Bitcoin reaches $100K?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will English Wikipedia reach 7,000,000 Articles By EOY 2024?

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Will more New York Times articles use the word "wokeness" in 2024 than in 2023?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Prediction markets for Article

Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

What will be the most popular Wikipedia article in 2024?

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before Bitcoin reaches $100K?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?