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Top stories

Paris Hilton Testifies on Institutional Child Abuse at Provo Canyon School, Advocates for New Act
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Prediction markets for Congress

Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025?

Jan 14, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.57%chance

854709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1420

Will legislation be passed into law that lays out process for enforcing 14th amendment during 118th congress?

Mar 22, 7:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.47%chance

12386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

879

Will Lauren Bobert be a member of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 2:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.31%chance

263130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2149

185

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Dec 1, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

3310201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3317

838

Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2024?

May 19, 1:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.1%chance

472060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected to Congress in the 2024 election?

Oct 6, 4:19 PMNov 10, 7:59 AM

67.63%chance

251397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

936

Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Jul 2024?

Feb 1, 2:48 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

73.26%chance

13173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

976

Will a member of United States congress die in 2026?

Sep 29, 5:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.29%chance

12551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

984

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23%chance

13114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

956

Will Democrats control the U.S. Senate at the start of the 119th U.S. Congress?

Dec 23, 3:57 AMJan 5, 4:59 AM

24.81%chance

201399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

970

Will there be at least 10 socialists in US Congress after the 2024 elections?

Sep 10, 5:18 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

69.61%chance

18318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

943

Will the Republican nominee’s choice for running mate be someone serving in Congress?

Dec 21, 1:11 AMAug 31, 3:59 AM

23.54%chance

14348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

973

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