On June 12, 2024, The Economist launched a new forecasting model for the upcoming US presidential election, projecting a 34% chance of Joe Biden winning a second term. The model currently gives Donald Trump a roughly two-in-three chance of defeating Biden. This marks a significant shift from a similar model in 2020, which had predicted an 83% chance of Biden winning. The updated forecast highlights the challenging path ahead for the incumbent president as the race for the White House intensifies.
Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of winning America’s election in November. Our forecast model puts the former president ahead of Joe Biden: https://t.co/a0Uea8pbit 👇 https://t.co/KGonOAwbWL
Who will be America’s next president? We’ve built a forecast model to show the odds. Bookmark this page to follow the race for the White House https://t.co/fBpE8xUsNI 👇
The Economist projects a 34% likelihood of Joe Biden securing the election victory, while Donald Trump currently maintains a lead with two-thirds of the chances. #ElectionPredictions
We've launched our forecast model for the American election, which right now gives Trump a roughly two-in-three chance of beating Biden. When we unveiled a similar model around this time in 2020, it gave Biden an 83% chance of winning. https://t.co/MTphU6GMjX
🚨We've launched our new forecasting model for the US presidential election. It gives Joe Biden only a 34% chance of winning a second term. https://t.co/dKjjvAvdMe