The Economist forecasts Trump has a 65% chance of winning the 2024 US election, with a projected lead in swing states like Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Polls show Biden and Trump tied in national polls, with Biden leading in some states like Virginia and Wisconsin. Trump also leads in Utah and Iowa.
πΊπ² 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton π¦ Biden: 41% π₯ Trump: 40% π¨ RFK Jr: 7% πͺ Other: 3% β Trends: β’ April: Trump +2 β’ May: Biden +1 β’ June: Biden +1 β 538: #110 (1.8/3.0) | n=1,500 | 6/11-12 https://t.co/jIQeG5hWmX https://t.co/XmEhx6rDXG
πΊπ² 2024 GE: @MorningConsult π¦ Biden: 44% [=] π₯ Trump: 43% [=] πͺ Other: 8% β June 2: Trump +1 June 9: Biden +1 June 16: Biden +1 [+/- change vs June 9] β #116 (1.8/3.0) | 10,132 RV | June 14-16 https://t.co/RI5a7YGIdy https://t.co/2Abb1Em2KF
πΊπ² 2024 GE: @MorningConsult π¦ Biden: 44% [+1] π₯ Trump: 43% [-1] πͺ Other: 8% β June 2: Trump +1 June 9: Biden +1 June 16: Biden +1 [+/- change vs June 9] β #116 (1.8/3.0) | 10,132 RV | June 14-16 https://t.co/RI5a7YHg36 https://t.co/qZWZMbNvJm
πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast (6/17) Chance of winning π₯ Trump: 72% (new high) π¦ Biden: 28% Trends: β’ May 11: Trump 55-44% β’ June 5: Trump 61-39% β’ June 17: Trump 72-28% β Electoral votes π₯ Trump 306 π¦ Biden 232 β Projected vote margin in swing states β’ Georgia:β¦ https://t.co/kgwHBqpx6l https://t.co/fW7HFJg3U5
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner π₯ Trump: 56.5% π¦ Biden: 33.5% π¦ M. Obama: 3.9% π¨ RFK Jr: 1.9% ββ NV, GA, AZ & NC odds NEVADA π₯ Trump: 67% (new high) π¦ Biden: 33% . GEORGIA π₯ Trump: 66% π¦ Biden: 34% . ARIZONA π₯ Trump: 61% π¦ Biden: 39% . NORTH CAROLINAβ¦ https://t.co/eZN48DbrUm https://t.co/wlvrwXgS2B
Trump leads Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32% - Des Moines Register Biden's approval rating among all Iowans at 28% - Des Moines Register
π¨ New Poll Alert! Trump dominates Iowa poll, leading Biden by 18 points. Check out the latest data! https://t.co/3zA3Udox3y
NEW POLL: President Trump is leading Joe Biden 50% to 32% among likely Iowa voters. Biden's approval rating among all Iowans has remained low at 28%. https://t.co/RekIENsI74
#New General Election Poll Arizona π΄ Trump 40% (+2) π΅ Biden 38% Florida π΄ Trump 43% (+6) π΅ Biden 37% Georgia π΄ Trump 44% (+5) π΅ Biden 39% Michigan π΄ Trump 37% (+1) π΅ Biden 36 North Carolina π΄ Trump 43% (+3) π΅ Biden 40% Pennsylvania π΄ Trump 44% (+2) π΅β¦ https://t.co/hKEXTWoREe
πΊπ² 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton | @Telegraph PENNSYLVANIA π₯ Trump: 44% (+2) π¦ Biden: 42% π¨ RFK Jr: 5% π© Stein: 1% β GEORGIA π₯ Trump: 44% (+5) π¦ Biden: 39% π¨ RFK Jr: 6% β MICHIGAN π₯ Trump: 37% (+1) π¦ Biden: 36% π¨ RFK Jr: 8% π© Stein: 1% πͺ Oliver: 1% β ARIZONA π₯β¦ https://t.co/QiIfMkNntq
π IOWA GE: DM Register/Ann Selzer π₯ Trump: 50% (+18) π¦ Biden: 32% π¨ RFK Jr: 9% πͺ Oliver: 2% β Biden approval π’ Approve: 28% π΄ Disapprove: 67% β #12 (2.8/3.0) | 632 LV | 6/9-14 | Β±3.9% https://t.co/2ClmpBZ3fn https://t.co/QK6V6Gtk7W
NEW Iowa poll by Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer (A+) π₯ Donald Trump 50% π¦ Joe Biden 32% π¨ RFK Jr. 9% Biden net approval at -39 in Iowa Last poll: Trump 48-33 in February
2024 Arizona GE: Trump 50% (+6) Biden 44% . Trump 45% (+8) Biden 37% Kennedy 11% Stein 3% Oliver 0% Impact Research/@Fabrizio_Lee/@AARP, 600 LV, 5/28-6/4 https://t.co/mPqaQw22HY
βIn PA, 56.2% of surveyed Black voters say they would vote for Biden today, down 20 percentage pts. from those who say they voted for him in 2020. In MI, 54.4% of surveyed Black voters say they support Biden, down 22 percentage pts...β https://t.co/xkT8Y2FncQ
2024 National GE (Shift since 6/4): Trump 42% (=) Biden 40% (-2) Kennedy 3% (=) West 1% (=) Stein 1% (=) .@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 1,399 RV, 6/9-11 https://t.co/iGfcfcYkNo
2024 National GE: Trump 42% (+2) Biden 40% Kennedy 3% West 1% Stein 1% .@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 1,399 RV, 6/9-11 https://t.co/Aqgm6cfsP9 https://t.co/1LFWRozbNy
2024 National GE: Biden 48% (+1) Trump 47% . Trump 43% (+1) Biden 42% Kennedy 7% Stein 2% West 2% .@EchelonInsights, 1,013 LV, 6/10-12 https://t.co/hc9k7kym4N
2024 National GE (Shift since 5/9): Trump 43% (+1) Biden 42% (-2) .@RMG_Research, 3,000 RV, 6/3-6 https://t.co/9MMeMUeiL3
2024 National GE: Trump 43% (+1) Biden 42% .@RMG_Research, 3,000 RV, 6/3-6 https://t.co/GZ2hqtDyF6
.@Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Winner: Donald Trump 56.5% (+23) Joe Biden 33.5% https://t.co/ifkXXe8Ptf https://t.co/OmDEjVtpY8
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner π₯ Trump: 56.5% (+24) π¦ Biden: 32.5% π¦ M. Obama: 3.9% π¨ RFK Jr: 1.7% β Trends β’ May 5: Trump +2 β’ May 30: Trump +15 β’ June 16: Trump +24 https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw https://t.co/W6W2D8P5rj https://t.co/wlvrwXgS2B
πΊπ² 2024 GE: [Among Black voters] Pennsylvania π¦ Biden: 56% π₯ Trump: 11% π¨ West: 8% π¨ RFK Jr: 7% π© Stein: 1% β¬ Undecided: 13% β Michigan π¦ Biden: 55% π₯ Trump: 15% π¨ West: 8% π¨ RFK Jr: 6% π© Stein: 1% β¬ Undecided: 15% β 76% of those surveyed in each state said theyβ¦
πΊπ² 2024 GE: [Among Black voters] Pennsylvania π¦ Biden: 56% π₯ Trump: 11% π¨ West: 8% π¨ RFK Jr: 7% π© Stein: 1% β¬ Undecided: 13% β Michigan π¦ Biden: 55% π₯ Trump: 15% π¨ West: 8% π¨ RFK Jr: 6% π© Stein: 1% β¬ Undecided: 15% 76% of those surveyed in each state said theyβ¦
BREAKING: The Economist now predicts Trump has a 69% chance of winning the presidency.
πΊπ² 2024 PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST @TheEconomist (chance of winning) π₯ Trump: 69% π¦ Biden: 31% --- Electoral College π₯ Trump: 301 π¦ Biden: 237 ββ @DecisionDeskHQ (chance of winning) π₯ Trump: 56% π¦ Biden: 44% --- Electoral College π₯ Trump: 279 π¦ Biden: 259 βββ¦ https://t.co/fzJPabdDNe
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner April 18 π¦ Biden: 45% (+2) π₯ Trump: 43% May 20 π₯ Trump: 52% (+10) π¦ Biden: 42% . May 30 π₯ Trump: 54% (+15) π¦ Biden: 39% . JUNE 14 π₯ Trump: 56% (+23) π¦ Biden: 33% Net 25 point swing towards Trump https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw https://t.co/xQXQdewWK8 https://t.co/wlvrwXgS2B
Minnesota - Presidential Polling: Trump (R): 47% Biden (D): 45% McLaughlin / June 11, 2024 / n=600 (Trump Internal // Republican Pollster) https://t.co/Q1hRlyxugu
#New General Election Poll - Minnesota π΄ Trump 47% (+2) π΅ Biden 45% Biden won in 2020 with 7% McLaughlin (π΄) #F - 600 LV - 6/11
π¨Just in: New polling shows President Trump leading in Minnesota over Biden. Two Way Raceπ π΄ Trump 47% π΅ Biden 45% βͺοΈ Undecides 8% Four Way Raceπ π΄ Trump 44% π΅ Biden 39% π’ Stein 5% π‘ Oliver 1% βͺοΈ Undecides 11% Six Way Raceπ π΄ Trump 41% π΅ Biden 37% βͺοΈ RFK Jr 7%β¦ https://t.co/ggDMFrMEur
π HAWAII GE: McLaughlin and Associates (@realDonaldTrump internal) π¦ Biden: 49% π₯ Trump: 43% β¬ Undecided: 8% β π₯ Trump: 39% π¦ Biden: 36% π¨ RFK Jr: 8% π© Stein: 6% π¨ West: 5% πͺ Oliver: 1% β¬ Undecided: 5% β 538: #277 (0.5/3.0) | 600 LV | 6/9-11 https://t.co/X9qNdyKIKU
π MINNESOTA GE: McLaughlin and Associates (@realDonaldTrump internal) π₯ Trump: 47% π¦ Biden: 45% β¬ Undecided: 8% β π₯ Trump: 41% π¦ Biden: 37% π¨ RFK Jr: 7% π© Stein: 2% π¨ West: 2% πͺ Oliver: 1% β¬ Undecided: 11% β π₯ Trump: 44% π¦ Biden: 39% π© Stein: 5% πͺ Oliver: 1% β¬β¦ https://t.co/vBzkuAt2tq
π¨NEW POLL: TRUMP LEADING BIDEN IN MINNESOTA https://t.co/r9IjrckLUn
Presidential Polling: Trump (R): 43% Biden (D): 42% RMG / June 6, 2024 / n=3000 https://t.co/Eam5y82lws
California Presidential Polling: Biden (D): 55% Trump (R): 31% PPIC / June 2, 2024 / n=1098 https://t.co/zaVFjidknk
π ARIZONA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll π₯ Trump: 47% π¦ Biden: 40% πͺ Other: 9% --- π₯ Trump: 41% π¦ Biden: 37% π¨ RFK Jr: 10% π¨ West: 2% π© Stein: 1% β¬ Undecided: 7% β Senate π¦ Gallego: 44% π₯ Lake: 41% πͺ Other: 5% β¬ Undecided: 10% --- π¦ Gallego: 40% π₯ Lake: 39% π© Hernandez:β¦ https://t.co/gFdUnAZCJN
.@Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Winner: MICHIGAN Biden 54% (+8) Trump 46% . WISCONSIN Biden 53% (+6) Trump 47% . PENNSYLVANIA Biden 52% (+4) Trump 48% https://t.co/ifkXXe8hDH https://t.co/upi7Tdwwec https://t.co/fC3eoaHgTp
NEW: @FiveThirtyEight Forecast Win probability π₯ Trump: 51% π¦ Biden: 49% β EC Forecast (June 14) π₯ Trump: 272 π¦ Biden: 266 EC Forecast (April 8) π¦ Biden: 302 π₯ Trump: 236 β @Polymarket odds (June 14) π₯ Trump: 55% π¦ Biden: 33% https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw ββ¦ https://t.co/jvfmKhXqln https://t.co/J3IScBBxYQ
πΊπ² 2024 Presidential Election: The Economist Forecast (chance of winning) May 28 π₯ Trump: 57% π¦ Biden: 42% . JUNE 14 π₯ Trump: 69% π¦ Biden: 31% β Electoral votes π₯ Trump 301 π¦ Biden 237 β Projected vote margin in swing states β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +3 β’ Georgia: Trump +4β¦ https://t.co/dNrWiZC7Mi https://t.co/fW7HFJg3U5
#NEW @TheEconomist Forecast: Chance of winning: Trump 69% Biden 31% . Electoral votes: Trump 301 Biden 237 https://t.co/dAh6wNg8kZ https://t.co/yjl6XaCftd
#Latest @FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Chance of winning: Biden 50% Trump 50% . Electoral votes: Biden 269 Trump 269 https://t.co/YrahEEEqyr https://t.co/244Cws7Axm
.@Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Winner: Donald Trump 55% (+22) Joe Biden 33% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2% https://t.co/ifkXXe8hDH https://t.co/YrfdoySYi3
2024 National GE (Shift since 5/31): Trump 41% (+2) Biden 39% (-2) . Trump 38% (+1) Biden 37% (-2) Kennedy 10% (=) .@Reuters/@Ipsos, 930 RV, 6/12 https://t.co/jY5hiSIL6l
2024 National GE: Trump 41% (+2) Biden 39% . Trump 38% (+1) Biden 37% Kennedy 10% .@Reuters/@Ipsos, 930 RV, 6/12 https://t.co/MhKcgTHrGw
Rise: The Economistβs 2024 election prediction model shows Trump has a 2 in 3 chance of winning the electoral college & regaining the US Presidency this November https://t.co/fdfx1Wr43c https://t.co/FPIv3XORI8
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner π₯ Trump: 56.5% (new high) π¦ Biden: 34.5% π¦ M. Obama: 4.1% π¨ RFK Jr: 1.7% https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw https://t.co/jahJnW5tYN
2024 National GE (Shift since 5/31): Trump 41% (+2) Biden 39% (-2) .@Reuters/@Ipsos, 930 RV, 6/10-11 https://t.co/T6k5seeQgH
2024 National GE: Trump 41% (+2) Biden 39% .@Reuters/@Ipsos, 930 RV, 6/10-11 https://t.co/bnG33l5BEr
#New General Election Poll - Florida π΄ Trump 49% (+6) π΅ Biden 43% Florida Atlantic #B+ - 777 LV - 6/9
π Wisconsin GE: @JLPartnersPolls π¦ Biden: 44% π₯ Trump: 44% π¨ RFK Jr: 5% β¬ Undecided: 7% #145 (1.6/3.0) | 6/5-10 | 500 LV | Β±4.3% https://t.co/hzzKOe9Ws4 https://t.co/dYx9jhTzr8
#New General Election Poll π΄ Trump 42% (+2) π΅ Biden 40% Last poll was a tie YouGov #B+ - 1399 RV - 6/11
#New General Election Poll π΄ Trump 41% (+2) π΅ Biden 39% Last poll was a tie Ispos #B - 930 RV - 6/11
π Virginia GE: @coefficientpoll π¦ Biden: 41% π₯ Trump: 41% π¨ RFK Jr: 7% β¬ Undecided: 12% #277 (1.1/3.0) | 851 LV | 6/11-12 | Β±3.36% https://t.co/TPStpVxI3u https://t.co/XNhonxmguE
πΊπ² 2024 GE: Reuters/Ipsos π₯ Trump: 41% [+2] π¦ Biden: 39% [-2] π¨ RFK Jr: 10% Net 4 point swing towards Trump [+/- change vs June 1] β 538: #17 (2.8/3.0) | 903 RV | 6/10-11 https://t.co/V33KSSWfp1 https://t.co/I6SThW8gEM
BREAKING: 2024 Presidential Election forecast by The Economist. Chances of winning: Trump: 65% Biden: 35%
BREAKING: 2024 Presidential Election forecasts by The Economist. Chances of winning: Trump: 65% Biden: 35%
.@FiveThirtyEight Polling Average National π₯ Trump: 41.0% (+0.9) π¦ Biden: 40.1% π¨ RFK Jr: 9.2% β’ June 13, 2020: Biden +8.1 β’ 2020 final average: Biden +8.4 β June 13, 2024 vs [June 13, 2020] β’ Arizona: Trump +4.3 [Biden +4.0] β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +1.4 [Biden +4.2]β¦ https://t.co/5dXZTbu1Qg https://t.co/7soOpA26IL
π Utah GE: @Deseret | @Harris_X_ π₯ Trump: 57% (+32) π¦ Biden: 25% --- π₯ Trump: 49% (+29) π¦ Biden: 20% π¨ RFK Jr: 20% @hinckleyinst | 6/4-7 | 857 RV | Β±3.4% https://t.co/oJH9plHnv3 https://t.co/IhtVqNiGy3
Former President Trump has a two-in-three chance of winning the White House in November, according to The Economistβs newest election forecast model https://t.co/LeW2SC5EBg
Presidential Polling: Biden (D): 48% Trump (R): 47% Echelon / June 12, 2024 / n=1013 https://t.co/DmWp9FXazx
πΊπ² 2024 GE: @EchelonInsights π¦ Biden: 48% [+2] π₯ Trump: 47% [-2] Net 4 point swing towards Biden from May β π₯ Trump: 43% [=] π¦ Biden: 42% [+4] π¨ RFK Jr: 7% [-2] π© Stein: 2% [-1] π¨ West: 2% [+1] β Generic Ballot π¦ DEM: 48% [+3] π₯ GOP: 47% [-2] [+/- change vs May] ββ¦ https://t.co/XEMQ1EwJNm
πΊπ² 2024 GE: Civiqs/@dailykos (D) π¦ Biden: 45% [+1] π₯ Trump: 45% [=] πͺ Other: 8% [-1] β β’ March: Biden +1 β’ April: Trump+1 β’ June: Tie β Crosstabs β’ Indies: Trump 49-33% β’ White: Trump 52-39% β’ Black: Biden 75-13% β’ Hispanic: Biden 46-39% β’ Female: Biden 52-39% β’β¦ https://t.co/AFz1podddo
πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast Chances of winning π₯ Trump: 65% π¦ Biden: 35% β Projected vote margin in swing states β’ Georgia: Trump +4 β’ Arizona: Trump +3 β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +2 β’ Wisconsin: Trump +2 β’ Nevada: Trump +2 β’ Michigan: Trump +1 β @Polymarket odds π₯β¦ https://t.co/aSmIKMnE74