Recent political developments in the UK have shown a significant shift in voting intentions and by-election results, highlighting the changing landscape of the country's political scene. The latest voting intention survey, conducted between February 23 and 27 with a sample size of 2075, reveals Labour's lead has increased to 15 points, with Labour at 43% (+3), Conservatives at 28% (-1), Liberal Democrats at 10% (-1), Reform UK at 9% (-1), and Greens at 5% (-1). Furthermore, the General Election Nowcast predicts a substantial victory for Labour with 441 seats (+241) at 44.1%, a majority of 232, and significant losses for the Conservatives, who are projected to secure only 120 seats (-252) at 25.2%. By-election results from Central and Northgate (Great Yarmouth), with Labour at 52.6% (+6.5) and Conservatives at 32.3% (+7.7), Tranby (East Riding of Yorkshire) with Liberal Democrats at 55.3% (+4.4), and Minster and Woodmansey (East Riding of Yorkshire) with Liberal Democrats at 50.7% (+8.6), further underscore the Liberal Democrats' and Labour's strong performance, with both parties holding their respective seats. These results, coupled with high voter turnout in recent by-elections, suggest a potential shift in the UK's political dynamics ahead of future elections.
Ok so in by-election terms, this is pretty big. This represents 66% of the GE turnout. Compares to... 52% (BE turnout as a % of GE) in Kingswood (Lab gain) 59% in Wellingborough (gain) 57% in Chester (hold) 44% in West Lancs (hold) ! 73% in Tiverton (LDem gain) https://t.co/WXw7aaP7VB
Minster and Woodmansey (East Riding of Yorkshire) council by-election result: LDEM: 50.7% (+8.6) CON: 24.9% (-1.9) LAB: 17.4% (-9.4) GRN: 7.0% (+7.0) Valid votes cast: 2,837 Liberal Democrat HOLD. https://t.co/A6mCtQbUiM
Tranby (East Riding of Yorkshire) council by-election result: LDEM: 55.3% (+4.4) LAB: 23.6% (+2.7) CON: 15.5% (-4.2) GRN: 5.6% (-2.9) Valid votes cast: 1,731 Liberal Democrat HOLD. https://t.co/A6mCtQbUiM
Central and Northgate (Great Yarmouth) council by-election result: LAB: 52.6% (+6.5) CON: 32.3% (+7.7) LDEM: 15.2% (+3.3) No Ind (-17.6) as prev. Valid votes cast: 917 Labour HOLD. https://t.co/A6mCtQbUiM
🚨 || General Election Nowcast (29/02): LAB: 441 (+241) - 44.1% CON: 120 (-252) - 25.2% LDM: 45 (+37) - 10.1% SNP: 19 (-29) - 3.1% PLC: 4 (+2) - 0.6% GRN: 2 (+1) - 6.2% RFM: 0 (=) - 10.3% Oth: 1 (=) - 0.4% LAB Maj of 232. Changes w/ GE2019 notionals. https://t.co/Y304WEsKwv https://t.co/pSi8gQbEvm
🚨 After a mid Feb dip our latest voting intention has Labour’s lead back up to 15 where it has sat for much of the last year. Scores on the doors: 🌹Labour 43% (+3) 🌳Conservatives 28% (-1) 🔶Liberal Democrats 10% (-1) 🟣Reform UK 9% (-1) 💚Greens 5% (-1) 23/2-27/2 N=2075 https://t.co/LW1J4kTylA