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Sharpe News
Prediction markets for Sharpe
Prediction markets for Sharpe
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%
chance
19
700
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1003
994
Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)
Nov 14, 9:51 PM
Aug 11, 9:43 PM
28
1638
Option
Votes
YES
NO
727
504
Will "Evolution provides no evidence for the sharp ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Mar 25, 3:50 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
53.83%
chance
2
50
Option
Votes
NO
YES
158
22
Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years?
Apr 26, 5:56 PM
Apr 26, 11:59 PM
15.37%
chance
3
90
Option
Votes
YES
NO
200
74
Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?
Feb 7, 4:54 AM
Jan 1, 8:01 AM
45.38%
chance
4
75
Option
Votes
YES
NO
108
69
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
In 2025, what 2019-2022 work of AI safety will I think was most significant?
Dec 31, 8:13 PM
Jan 1, 8:13 PM
11
329
Will I read 52 books in 2024?
Dec 4, 5:52 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
45%
chance
18
873
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1030
941
Will Seattle be awarded a NBA expansion team in 2024?
Oct 9, 12:08 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
9.56%
chance
14
1542
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2115
777
Is RLHF good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]
Mar 15, 2:32 PM
Jan 1, 6:00 AM
44.51%
chance
36
1134
Option
Votes
NO
YES
998
951
US Presidential Election 2024: Time until official decision?
Dec 16, 8:09 PM
Dec 12, 4:59 AM
7
137
Will Turkey Default on Its Debt By The End of 2024?
Jun 3, 7:10 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
10.48%
chance
6
215
Option
Votes
YES
NO
365
92
Articles
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6
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15
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4
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7
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6
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4
4 months
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7
4 months
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5
4 months
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6
4 months
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9
5 months
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11
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7
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6
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4
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9
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7
6 months
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Authors
6
6 months
Sports
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Authors
18
6 months
NFL
Sports
Blazers Missing Sharpe, Ayton, Simons, Favored by 5 at Moda Center
Authors
5
6 months
NBA
Sports
Short-Handed Nets, Missing Claxton, Dinwiddie, Cam Johnson, and Finney-Smith, Suffer Decisive 144-122 Loss to Bucks
Authors
19
6 months
NBA
Sports
Pistons Lead Nets Early, Trail 61-54 at Half, Face 27th Straight Loss
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15
6 months
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Authors
6
6 months
NFL
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Authors
10
7 months
NFT
Crypto
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12
7 months
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4
7 months
NBA
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Authors
5
7 months
NBA
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Authors
5
8 months
NBA
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Authors
4
8 months
NBA
Sports
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Authors
21
8 months
NBA
Sports
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Authors
19
8 months
NBA
Sports
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Authors
10
8 months
NBA
Sports
Federal Judge Dismisses Brett Favre's Defamation Lawsuit Against Shannon Sharpe
Authors
14
8 months
NFL
Sports
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Authors
5
8 months
NBA
Sports
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Authors
5
8 months
NBA
Sports
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Authors
5
9 months
NFL
Sports
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Authors
5
9 months
Economics
Climate
Business
Dak Prescott's inconsistency blamed for Cowboys' offensive struggles
Authors
5
9 months
Sports
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