Ori News
Prediction markets for Ori
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
84%chance
4243111426
OptionVotes
3273
887
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.82%chance
69126413
OptionVotes
1421
1384
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.56%chance
16870748
OptionVotes
2080
1864
Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?
Mar 17, 5:57 PMOct 17, 10:59 PM
18.14%chance
6013411
OptionVotes
1937
294
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
42.97%chance
9171646
OptionVotes
1333
1227
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.08%chance
128118445
OptionVotes
1262
1026
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
Mar 7, 6:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
66.51%chance
405761
OptionVotes
1111
915
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?
Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
42.25%chance
845295
OptionVotes
1814
847
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?
Apr 6, 2:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
65.93%chance
735987
OptionVotes
1288
951
Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM
58.52%chance
343309
OptionVotes
1120
763
Will the remake of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door sell more than Paper Mario: The Origami King?
Mar 14, 6:09 AMJun 1, 2:29 PM
74.17%chance
741612
OptionVotes
1691
964
