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Prediction markets for Ben May

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Oct 26, 5:58 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

50.64%chance

8417779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1071

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.76%chance

342458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2177

2119

Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?

Jan 29, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.07%chance

12227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

951

In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?

Feb 1, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

12578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

972

Will OpenAI give their new LLM an anthropomorphic name?

Feb 18, 6:11 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

683768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

627

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Feb 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

211198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

819

Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?

Oct 9, 5:02 AMNov 6, 5:59 AM

70.7%chance

431792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

784

Global poverty: Will world life expectancy increase to <5 years of the leading large country's life expectancy by 2050?

Jan 29, 7:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

7166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

148

Will the protest at the Cambridge Union's event with the OpenAI CEO turn out to be organized by ControlAI?

Nov 3, 7:25 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

13.8%chance

5595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

33

If Ben Wallace is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?

Apr 20, 4:52 PMJan 24, 12:00 AM

21.67%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

104

Will at least 50.0% of US adults consume alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 27, 7:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

8126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

157

In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes?

Feb 1, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.42%chance

8120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

137

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