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Prediction markets for Ant
Prediction markets for Ant
Will "We don’t trade with ants" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
May 11, 6:13 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
74.85%
chance
3
90
Option
Votes
NO
YES
150
8
What will the next ant colony be in AntCanadas rainforest terrarium Pantdora.
Apr 6, 1:21 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
2
87
Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?
Feb 11, 1:12 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
49.02%
chance
2
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
90
89
Will the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) reach Germany by end of 2024?
Sep 13, 7:11 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
45.86%
chance
6
64
Option
Votes
NO
YES
137
118
Will "The ants and the grasshopper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 15, 6:33 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
63.57%
chance
2
23
Option
Votes
NO
YES
113
44
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?
Oct 3, 1:17 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
53.65%
chance
53
4175
Option
Votes
YES
NO
24498
22231
Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?
Oct 13, 1:41 PM
Dec 31, 4:59 AM
39.37%
chance
339
121882
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1946
1385
Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?
Oct 1, 6:02 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
88.72%
chance
148
39628
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5937
1301
Suggest features.
Feb 22, 2:30 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
81
14560
Which species will AI covertly train and employ to do its bidding?
Jun 18, 2:04 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
4
196
What animal will be the first to walk on the Moon?
Apr 1, 10:09 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
15
394
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
280
345976
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