Anies News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.89%chance

714302173

OptionVotes

YES

22056

17095

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Feb 26, 6:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23%chance

19181629720

OptionVotes

YES

8937

7483

Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME?

Jun 14, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.92%chance

389790

OptionVotes

YES

10596

7754

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.43%chance

68126363

OptionVotes

YES

1416

1372

Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?

Jun 1, 12:46 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

26.69%chance

4513959

OptionVotes

YES

16530

6082

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.86%chance

2412320

OptionVotes

YES

19228

6142

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.91%chance

211534

OptionVotes

YES

1273

913

Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?

Dec 13, 9:10 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.28%chance

15926538

OptionVotes

YES

4654

1393

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Mar 15, 12:02 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.99%chance

452865

OptionVotes

YES

1010

982

Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?

Jan 9, 2:45 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

3.27%chance

227141249

OptionVotes

YES

8723

1600

Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?

Jun 7, 2:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.55%chance

629270

OptionVotes

YES

3500

286

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

24.14%chance

20632568

OptionVotes

YES

5881

4187

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Prediction markets for Anies

Prediction markets for Anies

Prediction markets for Anies

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?

Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Anies

Prediction markets for Anies

Prediction markets for Anies

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]