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Warwick University Conservative Association Apologizes for Singing Nazi Song at Black-Tie Dinner
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Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year?

Nov 3, 8:15 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

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Who will be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?

Dec 4, 3:40 AMDec 11, 7:59 AM

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Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?

Oct 26, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.6%chance

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In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

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63.63%chance

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Will OpenAI reach a settlement with the New York Times over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024?

Sep 15, 3:59 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

1%chance

6847411

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43871

493

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

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Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

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71.66%chance

11712233

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2304

1848

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Nov 30, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.51%chance

13924267

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2693

1711

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

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39.15%chance

232323

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1704

1185

Will the New York Times Magazine kill their variety puzzle page by end of 2024? [M$1000 subsidy]

Aug 8, 8:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

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23985

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Mar 25, 11:26 PMMar 25, 11:59 PM

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28%chance

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