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AIRE

REALPHA TECH CORP

1.32+16.81%

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Oct 26, 5:58 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

44.04%chance

8717989

OptionVotes

YES

1994

905

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.83%chance

174557

OptionVotes

YES

967

864

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.39%chance

29661

OptionVotes

YES

1338

928

Will China real GDP growth rate reach 5% in 2024?

Dec 25, 5:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60%chance

312042

OptionVotes

YES

1342

626

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Sep 13, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.71%chance

21267888

OptionVotes

YES

7054

2313

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

Apr 28, 3:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13612857

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43%chance

18349211

OptionVotes

YES

1350

717

Will Real Madrid make it to the 2024/25 Champions League Final?

Jun 3, 12:56 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

38.43%chance

231389

OptionVotes

YES

1266

790

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.69%chance

12190

OptionVotes

YES

1032

955

Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2025 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!)

Mar 18, 4:01 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

55.9%chance

583437

OptionVotes

YES

1238

1204

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?

Nov 4, 12:02 PMNov 11, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

18884

OptionVotes

YES

1004

913

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Real News

Prediction markets for Real

Prediction markets for Real

Prediction markets for Real

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will China real GDP growth rate reach 5% in 2024?

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Will Real Madrid make it to the 2024/25 Champions League Final?

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2025 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!)

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Real

Prediction markets for Real

Prediction markets for Real

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will China real GDP growth rate reach 5% in 2024?

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?