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Prediction markets for Prospect

When will @BTE capitulate on his negative views on Donald Trump electoral prospects?

Aug 20, 2:17 AMNov 6, 2:59 AM

12968

Will federal law ban individuals from mining or prospecting for gold in Canada by April 2026?

Mar 22, 6:38 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

15%chance

3166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

53

Will these 2024 NBA Draft prospects make an All-Star team before 2030?

Jun 21, 11:33 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

00

Will federal law ban individuals from mining or prospecting for gold in the US by April 2026?

Mar 22, 6:28 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

15%chance

3169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

71

How do you believe the AI tools will impact your career prospects in the next ten years?

Jan 13, 6:27 PM

290

By the end of 2025, will WGA writers be widely agreed to have worse job prospects/compensation due to AI screenwriting?

Jul 2, 4:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.96%chance

7112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

151

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

39.61%chance

455062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

938

Will I have a baby by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 6:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

14.52%chance

15912883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3612

1657

Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?

Jan 14, 9:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.05%chance

10515818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3654

1182

Will I start HRT by 2026?

Mar 14, 3:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.16%chance

17258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

978

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.66%chance

11271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

972

Will Friedrich Merz still be the leader of CDU at the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 12:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.82%chance

10205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

937

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