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PFPT

PROOFPOINT INC

PFPT

PROOFPOINT INC

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

10116

9880

Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign?

Jun 27, 5:39 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

8.67%chance

5417014

OptionVotes

YES

11500

9336

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

42.97%chance

9171646

OptionVotes

YES

1333

1227

Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?

Oct 21, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.44%chance

227802

OptionVotes

YES

3845

331

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

63.22%chance

344391

OptionVotes

YES

1082

919

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.95%chance

625520

OptionVotes

YES

1528

726

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Nov 29, 5:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.04%chance

235597

OptionVotes

YES

1074

918

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

55%chance

234557

OptionVotes

YES

1046

905

Will the first AI to get IMO gold tree-search the formal proof space?

Dec 11, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.45%chance

271300

OptionVotes

YES

1037

920

Proof of stack market resolution

Dec 13, 7:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.37%chance

18888

OptionVotes

YES

1014

981

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

45.13%chance

21405

OptionVotes

YES

1093

902

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.06%chance

19630

OptionVotes

YES

999

973

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Proof News

Prediction markets for Proof

Prediction markets for Proof

Prediction markets for Proof

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Will the first AI to get IMO gold tree-search the formal proof space?

Proof of stack market resolution

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Proof

Prediction markets for Proof

Prediction markets for Proof

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?