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Chicago Cubs Unveil Bronze Ryne Sandberg Statue on Gallagher Way at Wrigley Field
Authors
7
11 days
Chicago
Politics

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.75%chance

838526115

OptionVotes

YES

11129

8889

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

Jun 15, 2:23 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

69.71%chance

392168768

OptionVotes

YES

73577

37099

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.63%chance

27952219735

OptionVotes

YES

4048

3274

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.11%chance

714302497

OptionVotes

YES

21793

17437

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.97%chance

262537760

OptionVotes

YES

3143

1675

Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?

Jun 28, 3:51 AMAug 2, 3:59 AM

37.68%chance

914760716

OptionVotes

YES

60393

26386

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

32.39%chance

11248665

OptionVotes

YES

1445

692

When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds?

Jun 25, 2:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4925

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

May 9, 3:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.89%chance

214144248

OptionVotes

YES

109617

50724

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33%chance

614252700

OptionVotes

YES

16076

11792

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?

Oct 3, 1:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.65%chance

534175

OptionVotes

YES

24498

22231

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.76%chance

201160574

OptionVotes

YES

4838

4660

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Top stories

Prediction markets for of

Prediction markets for of

Prediction markets for of

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds?

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for of

Prediction markets for of

Prediction markets for of

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.