Nats News

Will I consider Nat Friedman's tweet about AIs writing code to have been a wild exaggeration?

Mar 5, 5:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

57.6%chance

17650

OptionVotes

YES

1071

863

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.28%chance

3121

OptionVotes

YES

216

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

May 16, 4:58 PMJul 8, 6:59 PM

96.14%chance

633481606

OptionVotes

YES

271196

12796

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.23%chance

201160211

OptionVotes

YES

4881

4599

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.23%chance

99359673

OptionVotes

YES

1752

1517

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.91%chance

4814688

OptionVotes

YES

13903

7280

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

196083

OptionVotes

YES

12421

7908

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.86%chance

3310874

OptionVotes

YES

18386

7579

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.72%chance

14839628

OptionVotes

YES

5937

1301

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333289835

Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors one year after Sam Altman's ouster?

Nov 18, 6:58 PMNov 19, 7:59 AM

11346157

Who will be the next CEO of Google?

Jan 15, 11:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7315

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Nats News

Prediction markets for Nats

Prediction markets for Nats

Prediction markets for Nats

Will I consider Nat Friedman's tweet about AIs writing code to have been a wild exaggeration?

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors one year after Sam Altman's ouster?

Who will be the next CEO of Google?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Nats

Prediction markets for Nats

Prediction markets for Nats

Will I consider Nat Friedman's tweet about AIs writing code to have been a wild exaggeration?

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]