DOE News

U.S. Offers $850 Million in Grants to Reduce Methane Emissions by August 26
Authors
8
6 days
Politics
House Science Committee Advances H.R. 8674, Milestones for Advanced Nuclear Fuel Act
Authors
7
14 days
Politics

Does listening to music lead to higher utility?

Jun 27, 6:22 PMJul 27, 9:59 PM

49.92%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

10000

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

38%chance

12711858

OptionVotes

YES

1568

1072

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

16762246

OptionVotes

YES

6748

3868

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Dec 22, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.07%chance

4132

OptionVotes

YES

204

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.43%chance

292711

OptionVotes

YES

1924

875

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

4143950

OptionVotes

YES

3399

314

If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?

Jun 4, 5:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.78%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

2272

440

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.71%chance

11547

OptionVotes

YES

1059

958

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.85%chance

10712562

OptionVotes

YES

1266

733

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

58.52%chance

343309

OptionVotes

YES

1120

763

Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence?

Dec 13, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.85%chance

6412252

OptionVotes

YES

1054

848

Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?

Feb 28, 9:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

431969

OptionVotes

YES

1092

724

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U.S. Offers $850 Million in Grants to Reduce Methane Emissions by August 26
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6 days
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Does listening to music lead to higher utility?

Does God exist?

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Does Planet Nine exist?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence?

Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for DOE

Prediction markets for DOE

Prediction markets for DOE

Does listening to music lead to higher utility?

Does God exist?

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Does Planet Nine exist?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence?

Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?

Latest stories