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Prediction markets for Direct Line

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.3%chance

27030469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2740

2379

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27%chance

268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

61

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 10M views before 2025? (strict version)

Jan 13, 7:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

223807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

669

Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024?

Dec 25, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.54%chance

644343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

596

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024

Dec 20, 6:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6.18%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

29

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.32%chance

535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

214

Will Jonathan Majors appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?

Apr 11, 5:24 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

1.39%chance

71346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

37

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.8%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

160

Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of 2024.

Apr 12, 8:43 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

94%chance

5475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

674

106

Any of these 50 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024 (improved!)

Jan 1, 4:11 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

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