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Prediction markets for Data Credits
Prediction markets for Data Credits
Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)
Jan 2, 3:23 AM
Dec 2, 5:59 AM
61.2%
chance
215
12668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5239
4210
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8.52%
chance
21
6782
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3277
305
Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025
Oct 1, 4:55 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
13.95%
chance
38
12259
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1332
880
Will the value of the "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" index be >110 on June 1, 2025?
Jun 1, 6:45 AM
Jun 1, 7:00 AM
57.37%
chance
2
8
Option
Votes
NO
YES
78
63
PM7: Citi will continue to be MIA in the premium travel credit card space.
Jan 2, 2:48 PM
Dec 24, 2:39 PM
50%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?
Feb 10, 11:54 PM
Feb 15, 7:59 AM
23
1085
PM1: Annual fees will continue to rise—and so will authorized user fees.
Jan 2, 2:42 PM
Dec 24, 2:39 PM
50%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Will more student loans be 90+ days delinquent at the end of 2024 compared to the start of 2020?
Aug 28, 10:33 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
25.83%
chance
8
158
Option
Votes
YES
NO
253
86
Will Oregon voters pass or fail IP-17 (Oregon Rebate) and by what margin?
Jun 18, 4:49 PM
Nov 6, 4:00 AM
1
596
PM4: The Chase Sapphire Preferred card will offer 3X points for travel.
Jan 2, 2:46 PM
Dec 24, 2:39 PM
33.13%
chance
3
46
Option
Votes
YES
NO
94
54
Will the delinquency rate on credit card loans reach 4% by the end of Q2 (June 30th) 2024 in the United States?
Dec 17, 10:14 PM
Jul 1, 3:59 AM
20.48%
chance
7
169
Option
Votes
YES
NO
216
55
PM3: Airline status will get harder to earn—but premium co-branded credit cards will help.
Jan 2, 2:45 PM
Dec 24, 2:39 PM
50%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
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Authors
4
1 month
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