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Prediction markets for Bureaucrats
Prediction markets for Bureaucrats
If a random 50% of federal bureaucrats are instantly fired on January 21st 2025, will anything break as a result?
Nov 13, 1:12 AM
Feb 2, 4:59 AM
62.92%
chance
12
323
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1015
950
No AI prediction on manifold will ever be correct for the duration of this site, except purely bureaucratic changes
Apr 14, 11:03 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
25%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
YES
NO
177
104
What new information will surface this year about the sudden closure of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute?
Apr 17, 3:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
31
1364
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
60
3197
Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]
May 22, 4:25 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
23.06%
chance
170
29382
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2344
1657
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
Mar 14, 11:02 PM
Mar 14, 11:59 PM
70.88%
chance
69
2753
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1766
959
Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?
Nov 1, 1:12 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
83.63%
chance
18
966
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1074
964
Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.
Mar 22, 7:04 PM
Dec 16, 5:59 AM
81.53%
chance
6
690
Option
Votes
NO
YES
832
459
By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
Jan 16, 7:13 AM
Dec 2, 7:59 AM
5.36%
chance
9
382
Option
Votes
YES
NO
476
141
Articles
Latest stories
Election Commission Deploys 55 Lakh EVMs, Observers for Fair 2024 Lok Sabha Polls
Authors
8
3 months
India
World
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