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Top stories

Labour Suspends Kevin Craig for Betting Against Himself, Returning £100,000 Donation
Authors
19
5 days
Britain
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World
Thousands of Conservative Chairman Richard Holden's Campaign Leaflets Sent to Wrong Constituency
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Prediction markets for BBC News

Which additional media offices will Israel shut down, citing national security threats, by the end of 2024?

May 5, 10:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

121011

🫏🐘 What will happen depending on if Biden/Trump win the 2024 election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 14, 12:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

262807

Will the UK government change the conditions of graduate visa before the next elections?

May 23, 12:38 AMJul 18, 10:59 PM

7.12%chance

185661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7223

554

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?

Nov 24, 11:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.67%chance

13512494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1689

857

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Nov 4, 10:57 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

20.44%chance

966632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

495

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.95%chance

10286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

974

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.85%chance

23593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

940

[Metaculus] Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?

Jun 24, 4:19 AMJul 6, 11:00 AM

81.92%chance

61153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2129

470

Will China's housing market collapse in 2024? [100M subsidy]

Sep 16, 9:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.98%chance

271533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1421

806

Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?

Feb 3, 7:36 PMApr 3, 6:59 AM

12.56%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

968

Will there be commercial flying cars by Eoy 2024?

Dec 29, 7:49 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

6.45%chance

543640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2246

822

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