Arc News

AAC1

ARCADIA FINANCIAL LTD

AAC1

ARCADIA FINANCIAL LTD

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.64%chance

98236864

OptionVotes

YES

11414

8897

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Jun 11, 7:16 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

21.53%chance

181288109

OptionVotes

YES

12362

9085

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMDec 4, 5:59 AM

5051663

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.33%chance

535969

OptionVotes

YES

1071

770

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

214033

Will the straw hats lose in the egghead arc like Kid and Law?

May 8, 4:22 PMAug 17, 12:10 AM

16.93%chance

15321924

OptionVotes

YES

2343

1157

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Jun 11, 7:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.63%chance

202307

OptionVotes

YES

1070

935

Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks

Jun 12, 11:19 AMNov 4, 10:59 PM

61.31%chance

244067

OptionVotes

YES

1259

794

Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?

Jun 12, 12:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.85%chance

4819606

OptionVotes

YES

1358

736

Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?

Jun 12, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

133070

OptionVotes

YES

1566

639

By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that ARC found any model to be able to survive and spread?

Apr 5, 7:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.07%chance

20572

OptionVotes

YES

1025

978

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

Mar 23, 10:07 AMJan 1, 4:00 PM

19.22%chance

321673

OptionVotes

YES

1443

826

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Arc News

Prediction markets for Arc

Prediction markets for Arc

Prediction markets for Arc

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Will the straw hats lose in the egghead arc like Kid and Law?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks

Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?

Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?

By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that ARC found any model to be able to survive and spread?

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Arc

Prediction markets for Arc

Prediction markets for Arc

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Will the straw hats lose in the egghead arc like Kid and Law?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?