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Transformers One News
Prediction markets for Transformers One
Prediction markets for Transformers One
Will "One-layer transformers aren’t equivalent to a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 27, 4:19 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
After Furiosa's poor opening weekend, will any of these upcoming movies flop this year?
May 28, 2:07 AM
Apr 1, 6:59 AM
36
8755
Which films will be nominated for an Oscar at the 97th Academy Awards?
Mar 2, 10:32 PM
Feb 10, 1:29 PM
30
1593
Which films will win an Oscar at the 97th Academy Awards?
Mar 2, 10:36 PM
Mar 26, 1:29 PM
18
2719
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Oct 27, 3:05 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
73.77%
chance
49
3219
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2015
1196
In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?
Sep 20, 7:52 AM
Sep 21, 10:59 PM
48%
chance
19
1284
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1530
452
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
20.87%
chance
22
1229
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1102
939
6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption.
Dec 25, 1:35 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
62.96%
chance
53
3275
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1052
852
Will solutions for "Deep Learning: Foundations and Concepts" be available on the book’s website by September 1, 2024?
May 25, 9:20 PM
Aug 31, 9:59 PM
47.58%
chance
2
149
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1050
953
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
73.68%
chance
13
2914
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1075
955
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
Sep 23, 2:27 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
60%
chance
57
3628
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1035
914
Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?
Apr 11, 10:09 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.95%
chance
27
2474
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1051
937
Articles
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22
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10
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