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Prediction markets for Top
Prediction markets for Top
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
Jun 15, 2:23 PM
Jul 31, 6:59 AM
68.48%
chance
380
157979
Option
Votes
NO
YES
71336
38101
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?
Aug 26, 1:33 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
158
58595
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
Jan 1, 7:36 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
102
27911
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
Feb 3, 2:59 PM
Dec 31, 10:00 AM
63.47%
chance
246
30273
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4514
4273
Will StrongMinds be a GWWC top charity in 2025?
Dec 23, 3:02 PM
Jan 1, 12:01 AM
13.33%
chance
68
21709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
15574
10409
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
May 11, 10:36 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.82%
chance
72
10440
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4090
2354
Will Hans Niemann be ranked in the top 25 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024?
Jan 18, 4:05 AM
Dec 31, 9:01 PM
41.37%
chance
27
4707
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3949
2615
Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? [Top 6 candidates, new market style]
Jul 1, 8:42 AM
Jul 19, 3:59 AM
1046
328985
How much volume will Polymarket have on its top 2024 US presidential election market?
Sep 11, 5:42 AM
Jan 16, 4:59 AM
11
57646
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?
Mar 5, 8:30 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 AM
18.28%
chance
85
5701
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2910
939
Will Carson the Terrier once again place top 3 in the 2024 World Dog Surfing Championships (WDSC)?
Apr 30, 3:26 AM
Aug 3, 6:59 AM
60.65%
chance
10
158
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1130
900
Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?
Dec 7, 11:40 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
19.13%
chance
32
3263
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2804
747
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