Search
News Chat
Login
Search
Top
For You
Business
Crypto
Culture
Environment
Politics
Science
Sports
Tech
Video Games
World
Theory of Mind News
Prediction markets for Theory of Mind
Prediction markets for Theory of Mind
Will AI be able to surpass a human using theory of mind when tested via Hanabi?
Oct 19, 11:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
33.39%
chance
3
33
Option
Votes
YES
NO
116
72
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?
Jun 3, 1:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
44%
chance
7
276
Option
Votes
NO
YES
524
438
If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?
Dec 3, 9:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
29.64%
chance
28
2050
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3004
2533
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
56.32%
chance
27
1336
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1041
925
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
21.24%
chance
69
6475
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1684
1350
By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?
Aug 9, 7:12 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
60%
chance
3
92
Option
Votes
NO
YES
98
83
Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?
Apr 25, 5:18 PM
Dec 31, 12:00 AM
81.15%
chance
3
120
Option
Votes
NO
YES
144
64
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
51%
chance
7
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
156
143
[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?
Sep 20, 12:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
69.87%
chance
4
72
Option
Votes
NO
YES
140
88
Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?
Apr 7, 12:55 PM
25
0
Articles
Latest stories
On June 6, 2024, OpenAI Breaks Down GPT-4 into 16 Million Interpretable Features
Authors
6
26 days
AI
Tech
GPT-4 Surpasses Humans in Theory of Mind Tasks, Shows Inconsistent Benchmarking
Authors
8
1 month
AI
Tech
GPT-4 and Flan-PaLM Surpass Humans in 6th Order Theory of Mind Tasks
Authors
5
1 month
AI
Tech
AnthropicAI Advances in AI Interpretability with New 'Brain Scan' Technique, Showcases Theory of Mind in LLMs
Authors
8
1 month
AI
Tech
Previous
Next
