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Theory of Mind News
Prediction markets for Theory of Mind
Prediction markets for Theory of Mind
Will AI be able to surpass a human using theory of mind when tested via Hanabi?
Oct 19, 11:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
33.39%
chance
3
33
Option
Votes
YES
NO
116
72
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?
Jun 3, 1:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
44%
chance
7
276
Option
Votes
NO
YES
524
438
If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?
Dec 3, 9:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
29.64%
chance
28
2050
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3004
2533
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
56.32%
chance
27
1336
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1041
925
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
21.24%
chance
69
6475
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1684
1350
By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?
Aug 9, 7:12 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
60%
chance
3
92
Option
Votes
NO
YES
98
83
Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?
Apr 25, 5:18 PM
Dec 31, 12:00 AM
81.15%
chance
3
120
Option
Votes
NO
YES
144
64
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
51%
chance
7
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
156
143
[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?
Sep 20, 12:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
69.87%
chance
4
72
Option
Votes
NO
YES
140
88
Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?
Apr 7, 12:55 PM
25
0
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