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Prediction markets for Special
Prediction markets for Special
Will Special Counsel Jack Smith seek mandamus regarding Judge Cannon's jury instructions in the Trump documents case?
Apr 4, 10:26 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
25.4%
chance
10
1174
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1068
896
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?
Dec 10, 9:33 AM
Dec 31, 10:00 PM
55.34%
chance
27
1261
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1053
867
Will an AI specialized in Lego building be created before the end of 2024?
Dec 18, 6:37 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
41.83%
chance
12
223
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1025
979
Will the Biden Special Counsel investigation determine there is probable cause to believe Biden committed a crime?
Jan 17, 11:44 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7.99%
chance
23
703
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1380
927
Which of these UCI road cycling teams will have Specialized as a bike sponsor in 2024?
Sep 24, 5:51 PM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
7
5080
Who will be the next special envoy for climate?
Jan 13, 8:02 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24
2045
Will the manifold.markets community send the Carter family a special birthday card/gift for Jimmy Carter's 100 birthday?
Jun 23, 5:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Will Rust support specialization on stable by 2026?
Dec 20, 7:37 PM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
60%
chance
4
33
Option
Votes
NO
YES
124
99
Is Sam Altman building a 'big special something' in the desert?
Mar 26, 1:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
29.55%
chance
8
280
Option
Votes
YES
NO
298
201
Will California vote to lower the supermajority requirement to 55% for local special taxes to fund housing?
Jan 15, 11:04 PM
Dec 2, 6:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Will Chris Turner get a Netflix special before 2026?
Apr 3, 3:55 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
48.04%
chance
1
4
Option
Votes
YES
NO
124
116
Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)
May 27, 4:45 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
3
35
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