Question Time News

Farage's Exclusion from BBC Leaders' Debate and Question Time Sparks Controversy
Authors
4
10 days
Britain
World
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak Faces Criticism from Question Time Audience for ECHR Stance
Authors
7
10 days
Britain
World
Rishi Sunak Links Keir Starmer's Promises to Liz Truss's 'Fantasy' in Election Discourse, Warns of Potential Tax Increases
Authors
6
10 days
Britain
World
Ed Davey Faces Tough Questions on Coalition Government and Tuition Fees on Question Time
Authors
7
10 days
Britain
World

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

May 5, 11:57 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

11.02%chance

2214

OptionVotes

YES

284

What would be true about the first Manifold question to be #1 on Hacker News

Mar 4, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6436

Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 6:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.04%chance

328

OptionVotes

YES

160

Estimated timeline for lab-cultured meat in grocery stores within the next few decades? (Previously asked question)

Dec 21, 9:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30995

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

11992480538

OptionVotes

YES

11766

9475

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Feb 26, 6:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.11%chance

19151623650

OptionVotes

YES

8542

7605

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.51%chance

390542364

OptionVotes

YES

15663

14790

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

45.25%chance

597179438

OptionVotes

YES

15327

12202

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Jan 24, 2:55 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

18.49%chance

27761462023

OptionVotes

YES

12809

4647

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.79%chance

8810121

OptionVotes

YES

11417

8973

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

10098

9894

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

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18
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4 months
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4 months
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Question Time News

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Prediction markets for Question Time

Prediction markets for Question Time

Prediction markets for Question Time

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

What would be true about the first Manifold question to be #1 on Hacker News

Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025?

Estimated timeline for lab-cultured meat in grocery stores within the next few decades? (Previously asked question)

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Question Time

Prediction markets for Question Time

Prediction markets for Question Time

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

What would be true about the first Manifold question to be #1 on Hacker News

Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025?

Estimated timeline for lab-cultured meat in grocery stores within the next few decades? (Previously asked question)

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?