Origin News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85%chance

4203089567

OptionVotes

YES

3261

954

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.43%chance

68126363

OptionVotes

YES

1416

1372

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.56%chance

16870748

OptionVotes

YES

2080

1864

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Mar 17, 5:57 PMOct 17, 10:59 PM

18.14%chance

6013411

OptionVotes

YES

1937

294

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

42.83%chance

8970000

OptionVotes

YES

1330

1231

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.65%chance

12496393

OptionVotes

YES

1517

710

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

42.25%chance

845295

OptionVotes

YES

1814

847

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Apr 6, 2:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.93%chance

735987

OptionVotes

YES

1288

951

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

58.52%chance

343309

OptionVotes

YES

1120

763

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Jan 24, 12:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.78%chance

20597

OptionVotes

YES

1088

948

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

1087

874

Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M)

Jun 29, 10:24 PMSep 8, 6:59 AM

54.14%chance

9385

OptionVotes

YES

1086

920

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Origin News

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M)

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?