Manager of the Year News

Will my friend manage to study for 1 year in the USA + pay half of the price himself?

Oct 30, 7:34 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

10.3%chance

3197

OptionVotes

YES

265

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

Jan 18, 8:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.12%chance

4733590

OptionVotes

YES

1555

1483

Will the International Criminal Court (ICC) manage to arrest Putin this year following genocide investigation?

Jan 23, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.38%chance

102049

OptionVotes

YES

1502

932

Will Pep Guardiola Manage an MLS Team in a Competitive Match Within the Next 5 Years? (Ends June 12, 2028)

Jun 12, 9:20 PMJun 12, 11:59 PM

10.67%chance

6927

OptionVotes

YES

364

In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste?

May 2, 10:01 PMMay 2, 10:00 PM

15.96%chance

674

OptionVotes

YES

145

110

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

10098

9894

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.37%chance

371079

OptionVotes

YES

2150

2093

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

YES

1041

925

Will Sven-Göran Eriksson celebrate his 77th birthday?

Jun 26, 9:45 PMFeb 5, 8:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

132914

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.2%chance

14191

OptionVotes

YES

1083

958

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Manager of the Year News

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Will my friend manage to study for 1 year in the USA + pay half of the price himself?

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

Will the International Criminal Court (ICC) manage to arrest Putin this year following genocide investigation?

Will Pep Guardiola Manage an MLS Team in a Competitive Match Within the Next 5 Years? (Ends June 12, 2028)

In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Sven-Göran Eriksson celebrate his 77th birthday?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Prediction markets for Manager of the Year

Will my friend manage to study for 1 year in the USA + pay half of the price himself?

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

Will the International Criminal Court (ICC) manage to arrest Putin this year following genocide investigation?

Will Pep Guardiola Manage an MLS Team in a Competitive Match Within the Next 5 Years? (Ends June 12, 2028)

In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?