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Prediction markets for Just For Us
Prediction markets for Just For Us
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
Mar 3, 10:19 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
93.55%
chance
46
4011
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3041
110
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Aug 3, 6:17 PM
Dec 17, 4:29 PM
3381
8289399
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Jan 14, 5:21 PM
Nov 7, 5:59 AM
30%
chance
5166
5627866
Option
Votes
YES
NO
76088
33353
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
44.03%
chance
712
302113
Option
Votes
NO
YES
22102
17037
When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
3
875
Which party will win the US Presidency in Michigan?
Jan 3, 1:37 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
218
168158
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
Aug 24, 10:57 PM
Dec 1, 5:59 AM
43.81%
chance
788
176798
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5061
3363
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
181
46107
2024 US Presidential Election Winner
Nov 26, 4:31 PM
Jan 22, 4:59 AM
3175
974577
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
Jan 5, 2:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
77.46%
chance
290
102153
Option
Votes
NO
YES
14414
10944
What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)
Apr 27, 8:33 PM
Dec 27, 10:59 PM
53.55%
chance
122
97412
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1356
1306
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:01 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
511
320927
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Berkeley Native Alex Edelman Wins Special Tony for 'Just For Us'
Authors
5
2 months
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