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Prediction markets for Just For Us
Prediction markets for Just For Us
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
Mar 3, 10:19 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
93.55%
chance
46
4011
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3041
110
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Aug 3, 6:17 PM
Dec 17, 4:29 PM
3618
9580131
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Jan 4, 1:02 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
1145
570808
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Jan 14, 5:21 PM
Nov 7, 5:59 AM
28.79%
chance
5232
5813216
Option
Votes
YES
NO
78373
32402
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
43.89%
chance
714
302173
Option
Votes
NO
YES
22056
17095
When will most end users of Synapse-based fintechs be able to withdraw their funds?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
3
875
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
Aug 24, 10:57 PM
Dec 1, 5:59 AM
43.81%
chance
788
176798
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5061
3363
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
192
74761
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
Jan 5, 2:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
79.55%
chance
294
107405
Option
Votes
NO
YES
15766
10574
What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)
Apr 27, 8:33 PM
Dec 27, 10:59 PM
50%
chance
122
97511
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1397
1259
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:01 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
513
321328
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Jan 14, 5:22 PM
Nov 7, 5:59 AM
58%
chance
587
596384
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2641
756
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