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Prediction markets for Gen AI
Prediction markets for Gen AI
Will Meta AI's MEGABYTE architecture be used in the next-gen LLMs?
May 26, 2:51 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
44.86%
chance
3
50
Option
Votes
YES
NO
106
73
Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?
Nov 29, 4:43 AM
Jul 1, 2:59 AM
45.32%
chance
2
18
Option
Votes
YES
NO
281
247
By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?
Oct 16, 3:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
38%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
74
By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
May 16, 4:43 AM
Jan 8, 7:59 AM
65.2%
chance
25
1196
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1042
970
Will spend on Generative AI exceed $25 billion in 2024?
Apr 25, 8:26 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
83.63%
chance
25
651
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1384
826
Will Nintendo or the Pokemon Company release an officially licensed Pokemon themed AI of some form by the end of 2025?
Jun 16, 5:30 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9.34%
chance
2
215
Option
Votes
YES
NO
312
32
When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?
Mar 7, 1:54 PM
Mar 14, 10:59 PM
16
1424
(AGI programmer automation) Will my market comp be <3x a median construction worker in April 2025.
Apr 11, 2:24 AM
Apr 30, 11:59 PM
4.08%
chance
6
281
Option
Votes
YES
NO
394
86
How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.
Jan 6, 3:11 PM
18
0
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