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Gen AI News
Prediction markets for Gen AI
Prediction markets for Gen AI
Will Meta AI's MEGABYTE architecture be used in the next-gen LLMs?
May 26, 2:51 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
44.86%
chance
3
50
Option
Votes
YES
NO
106
73
Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?
Nov 29, 4:43 AM
Jul 1, 2:59 AM
45.32%
chance
2
18
Option
Votes
YES
NO
281
247
By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?
Oct 16, 3:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
38%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
74
By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
May 16, 4:43 AM
Jan 8, 7:59 AM
65.2%
chance
25
1196
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1042
970
Will spend on Generative AI exceed $25 billion in 2024?
Apr 25, 8:26 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
83.63%
chance
25
651
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1384
826
When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?
Mar 7, 1:54 PM
Mar 14, 10:59 PM
16
1469
Will Nintendo or the Pokemon Company release an officially licensed Pokemon themed AI of some form by the end of 2025?
Jun 16, 5:30 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9.34%
chance
2
215
Option
Votes
YES
NO
312
32
(AGI programmer automation) Will my market comp be <3x a median construction worker in April 2025.
Apr 11, 2:24 AM
Apr 30, 11:59 PM
4.08%
chance
6
281
Option
Votes
YES
NO
394
86
How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.
Jan 6, 3:11 PM
18
0
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