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First Four News
Top stories
NCAA Nears Expansion of Men's Basketball Tournament to 72 or 76 Teams by 2025-26
Authors
5
14 days
NCAA
Sports
Prediction markets for First Four
Prediction markets for First Four
Which of these Four World Leaders in Asia will lose power first?
Mar 20, 6:24 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
67
2247
Which of these four events will happen first? #1
Dec 27, 8:36 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
61
2639
Will anyone remain in global first place in leagues four times in a row before the end of 2024?
Nov 1, 7:05 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
28.11%
chance
7
57
Option
Votes
YES
NO
200
151
Which of the following four animated sitcom TV shows will end first?
Dec 28, 6:10 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
14
409
Which of these four events will happen first? #2
Jan 1, 7:01 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
20
776
Which of these four events will happen first? #3
Feb 26, 6:13 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
11
445
Will "Timaeus's First Four Months" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Feb 28, 10:31 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
13.59%
chance
4
675
Option
Votes
NO
YES
163
130
Which of these four South American leaders will lose power first?
Mar 21, 5:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
5
118
Among the current four emperors who is most likely to drop out of the race to the one piece first
Mar 16, 1:40 PM
9
0
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.29%
chance
11
1709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4632
4000
⚔️ Can any Manifold user defeat Tumbles at Smash Bros Melee? ⚔️
Mar 5, 3:38 PM
Sep 2, 6:59 AM
44.62%
chance
11
301
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1003
990
AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?
May 29, 12:00 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
55.81%
chance
25
2055
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1124
890
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