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earthquake and tsunami News
Prediction markets for earthquake and tsunami
Prediction markets for earthquake and tsunami
Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
Mar 3, 5:59 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
4.88%
chance
18
1520
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2095
840
Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?
Sep 6, 6:10 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
37.45%
chance
9
171
Option
Votes
YES
NO
226
163
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024
Dec 20, 6:57 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
6.18%
chance
4
270
Option
Votes
YES
NO
357
29
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe in 2024
Sep 11, 4:23 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
34.38%
chance
4
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
135
93
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Nov 7, 2:18 PM
Jan 1, 10:00 PM
20.26%
chance
5
84
Option
Votes
YES
NO
172
107
Any of these 50 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024 (improved!)
Jan 1, 4:11 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
38.23%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
78
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
81.61%
chance
4
163
Option
Votes
NO
YES
189
74
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024
Sep 11, 4:21 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
40.98%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
80
62
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