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Top stories

China Urges EU to Remove EV Tariffs by July 4 Amid Trade Talks
Authors
7
6 hours
China
Economics
World
Two Chinese Scientists Win 2023 Top Science Award Presented by Xi Jinping
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Bank of China Suspends Yuan Payments from Sanctioned Russian Banks as of June 24
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Hong Kong Court Adjourns Kaisa Group Liquidation Petition Until August 12
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Chinese Ships Intrude into Japanese Waters Near Senkakus in Ishigaki, Okinawa for Fourth Straight Day
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Over 150 Athletes Secure Spots for Paris 2024 Olympics in Budapest
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Edward Wong Releases New Book on China and His Father's Role in Mao's Regime, Available June 25
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Senators Cantwell and Cruz Demand Answers from WADA on Chinese Swimmers' Doping Scandal Ahead of Paris Olympics
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Chinese Local Governments Expand Housing Market Stabilization Efforts to County-Level Cities
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Prediction markets for Chinese

Will an OpenAI employee be publicly revealed as a spy for the Chinese government before 2025?

May 13, 8:38 PMDec 14, 7:59 AM

15.36%chance

685751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5638

3956

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

26.48%chance

8353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

138

Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon?

Feb 5, 4:02 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

82.94%chance

10111289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3025

1455

Will a Chinese company introduce a smartphone using a domestically made chip below 7nm in 2024?

Dec 1, 10:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.44%chance

5517306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2364

651

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.02%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

946

Will a Chinese company/organization recreate Sora by the end of 2024?

Feb 21, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.08%chance

201749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

116

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70%chance

311016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

974

The percent of Boba Tea drinkers in Cupertino with Chinese names goes up in the year to May 2025

May 19, 4:48 PMMay 19, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

In 2024, will more or fewer Chinese nationals enter the US illegally through the Mexican border than in 2023? Yes=more

Feb 7, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.03%chance

11774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

Will another illegal Chinese funded biological lab be discovered in the US in 2024?

Dec 11, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.12%chance

15270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

945

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

64%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

921

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