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Prediction markets for Becoming

Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?

Apr 18, 10:20 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

67%chance

10373937180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6322

1108

Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?

Feb 12, 4:05 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

57.65%chance

11737320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57874

40168

Will Basil Zempilas become the leader of the Liberal Party before the next state election?

Jun 21, 7:48 PMMar 8, 3:59 PM

50.48%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10097

9904

If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?

Jan 14, 8:21 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

35%chance

14034048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

625

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.09%chance

26067937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3018

1673

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]

Feb 29, 7:34 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

30.43%chance

11713189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7140

2836

Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?

Oct 16, 1:53 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

54.54%chance

26825926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

924

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

70.55%chance

523883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1651

860

In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?

Oct 14, 9:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

133805

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

405760

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.98%chance

598318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3901

1487

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

Jun 2, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

13945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

961

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