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An Absurdity News
Prediction markets for An Absurdity
Prediction markets for An Absurdity
Discourse 2024: "A year of absurd abundance"?
Jan 7, 1:42 PM
Jan 30, 10:59 PM
25.98%
chance
3
34
Option
Votes
YES
NO
104
50
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
Mar 16, 7:31 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
63.63%
chance
79
15992
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3021
1249
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Jun 19, 3:47 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
3.99%
chance
38
4162
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2631
853
Will I be satisfied by 2025 that Israeli leadership did not deliberately ignore information about the Hamas attack?
Oct 11, 4:12 PM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
44.91%
chance
19
1163
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1013
979
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?
Aug 2, 1:01 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 AM
15.19%
chance
26
3050
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1458
764
UK General Election 2024 - How many TV debates will there be between Sunak and Starmer?
May 23, 12:56 PM
Jul 3, 10:59 PM
32
15807
What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN?
Jun 24, 6:58 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
2
19
Will More Than 1 Million Jews Immigrate to Israel in the years 2024-2027?
Nov 23, 10:01 PM
Dec 2, 6:59 AM
18.45%
chance
6
89
Option
Votes
YES
NO
224
119
Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?
Jul 6, 9:38 PM
Jan 1, 10:38 PM
75.28%
chance
6
75
Option
Votes
NO
YES
245
131
Who will be elected as mayor of São Paulo, largest Brazilian city in October, 2024?
Jan 20, 12:12 AM
Oct 29, 3:59 AM
4
175
How will the most entertaining question resolve?
Feb 20, 3:33 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
44.28%
chance
6
48
Option
Votes
YES
NO
371
368
[Convince Me] Aspartame (the molecule) is in any way harmful to human health [bet down to 1%, 500 lim]
Jul 2, 12:48 PM
Jul 10, 8:09 AM
4%
chance
17
2821
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1262
954
Articles
Latest stories
MLB's 'Absurd' Decision Ends Schanuel's 30-Game Streak, Sparks 'Scandal After Scandal' Critique
Authors
7
3 months
MLB
Sports
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