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Prediction markets for Alpha
Prediction markets for Alpha
Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?
Dec 30, 9:54 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
68.26%
chance
35
936
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1057
806
Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?
Sep 8, 3:56 AM
Dec 31, 12:00 PM
79.96%
chance
11
157
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1103
949
Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?
Feb 25, 9:42 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
5.99%
chance
17
1053
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1701
884
If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)
Jun 13, 11:45 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
10.03%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
250
250
Will Drew DeVault's SourceHut complete alpha and start beta before or at EOY 2024?
Jul 14, 2:47 PM
Jan 1, 12:00 PM
74.29%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
NO
YES
105
49
Will Aleph Alpha fold by 2028
Mar 23, 2:20 PM
Jan 16, 10:59 PM
45.25%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
130
111
Will VCARB Visa Cash App RB finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points-per-race than Alpha Tauri the 2023 season?
Feb 19, 4:40 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
77.93%
chance
2
45
Option
Votes
NO
YES
94
27
When will the new 4o voice mode finish alpha testing and be available for a significant amount of ChatGPT plus users?
Jun 26, 9:17 PM
Nov 5, 10:59 PM
23
4853
How does humanity establish its first permanent colony within the Alpha Centauri system?
Aug 22, 5:08 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
4
82
How many distinct celestial bodies will be known in Alpha Centauri system in 2030?
May 2, 11:22 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
4
75
Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025?
Jan 17, 10:28 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
64.3%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
75
When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri
Jun 5, 9:48 PM
Dec 2, 4:59 AM
9
67
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9 months
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