AGI News

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.12%chance

1586789918

OptionVotes

YES

18096

9202

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Jun 11, 7:16 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

23%chance

179235414

OptionVotes

YES

11618

9298

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44%chance

97232357

OptionVotes

YES

10608

9488

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.63%chance

14934559

OptionVotes

YES

1084

947

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMDec 4, 5:59 AM

4749536

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

806271747

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

80.13%chance

333127

OptionVotes

YES

2008

498

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

47.03%chance

371447

OptionVotes

YES

1081

901

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

69%chance

7532890

OptionVotes

YES

2331

2006

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.39%chance

696224

OptionVotes

YES

2514

2202

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

41.18%chance

13328376

OptionVotes

YES

1264

867

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

183743

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AGI News

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

Prediction markets for AGI

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?