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Prediction markets for Accord

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

1029332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1730

1390

Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2024, according to Gallup?

Nov 1, 5:50 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

68.48%chance

18690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

983

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

Dec 2, 5:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.16%chance

8410236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1894

1124

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.57%chance

10513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

909

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Oct 21, 4:37 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

70.59%chance

29918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

1048

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.24%chance

773545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

821

Will 2024 be colder than 2023? (according to NASA)

Nov 13, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.27%chance

465467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

791

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2024 (according to gallop)?

Mar 28, 5:00 AMMar 31, 12:59 PM

31.56%chance

311188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

868

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2024 than in 2023, according to Gallup?

Sep 15, 11:08 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

61.81%chance

271547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

869

Will Americans' confidence in the criminal justice system decline in 2024, according to Gallup?

Nov 1, 6:20 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

73.77%chance

11187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

959

Will Israel be victorious in the current Gaza-Israel conflict? [According to Wikipedia]

Oct 10, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.36%chance

285117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

789

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