2023 Annual Report News

Will "A report about LessWrong karma volatility fro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Apr 2, 4:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.23%chance

5187

OptionVotes

YES

317

166

Will "Report on Frontier Model Training" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

41.16%chance

212022

OptionVotes

YES

1607

1204

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Mar 9, 9:51 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

54.88%chance

365957

OptionVotes

YES

2227

585

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Biden wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Mar 9, 9:50 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

63.34%chance

282447

OptionVotes

YES

1555

1466

Will 2024 be colder than 2023? (according to NASA)

Nov 13, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.27%chance

465467

OptionVotes

YES

1362

791

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:44 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

67%chance

282271

OptionVotes

YES

1038

969

If Biden wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

Mar 18, 1:08 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

25.2%chance

11167

OptionVotes

YES

1093

949

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

74.26%chance

19775

OptionVotes

YES

989

981

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Mar 9, 9:37 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

38.67%chance

21450

OptionVotes

YES

1047

892

Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)

Oct 16, 2:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.65%chance

21699

OptionVotes

YES

1128

926

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

16424

OptionVotes

YES

1030

938

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2023 Annual Report News

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Will "A report about LessWrong karma volatility fro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will "Report on Frontier Model Training" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Biden wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Will 2024 be colder than 2023? (according to NASA)

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?

If Biden wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Prediction markets for 2023 Annual Report

Will "A report about LessWrong karma volatility fro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will "Report on Frontier Model Training" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Biden wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Will 2024 be colder than 2023? (according to NASA)

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?