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Top stories

Commercial Real Estate Faces Historic Downturn, Office Values Drop to $500 Billion, $250 Billion at Risk
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Power Outages Impact Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Las Vegas; Con Edison Responds
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Prediction markets for Times Square

Will Manifold buy a spot on a billboard in Times Square before 2025?

Jan 3, 11:54 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.54%chance

12434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

953

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

How will Isaac King resolve his "What is the largest number?" market?

Dec 31, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4139

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.1%chance

6515903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7078

5315

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69.6%chance

755140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2075

1529

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

Nov 26, 8:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.4%chance

10290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

981

Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?

Mar 15, 9:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

12169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

957

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Jul 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65%chance

151904

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

932

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

62%chance

14233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

961

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

4.33%chance

39126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4699

213

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.58%chance

121158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

932

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