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Top stories

Laos to Introduce Visa-Free Policy for Chinese Tourists from Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao SARs, Taiwan Starting July 1, 2024
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Prediction markets for Taiwan

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

May 9, 3:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.85%chance

214143572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110296

50681

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.53%chance

606251347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15598

12821

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.88%chance

22664074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2244

1469

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.65%chance

36377312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3491

2011

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

39.61%chance

455062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

938

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

65.73%chance

874329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2254

1868

Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?

May 24, 11:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.22%chance

9122837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8493

2521

What will happen to Taiwan before 2050?

Apr 13, 3:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

313348

[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Jan 1, 1:32 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

6%chance

808703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

1040

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.57%chance

18804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

614

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17%chance

13511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

927

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.74%chance

212144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

174

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